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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement wins the award. In practice, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or just the biggest upset.

However the latest competition is distinctly unique. The pool of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans rising in unison. In an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and fun year, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

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